Sunday, January 06, 2008

10 - 12 Point Lead In New Hampshire

Last Thursday over 100 of us gathered to watch as Senator Obama took Iowa. This Tuesday, it looks like we're going to watch him take a similar (if not greater!) victory in New Hampshire. Here's an article from Editor and Publisher with the latest polls:

NEW YORK The first two poll results based on survey taken in New Hampshire after the Iowa caucuses both show Barack Obama opening up a double digit lead over previous leader Hillary Clinton.

The new American Research Group poll gives Obama a 12-point lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, 38% to 26%, a 16% swing since the previous poll. John Edwards moved up on Clinton, at 20%, gaining 5% from his previous percentage.

Most interesting detail deep in the ARG numbers: Hillary actually leads Obama 34% to 32% among confirmed Democrats, while he tops her 49% to 12% among independents, which may make up one-third of the tally.

Earlier today the new Rasmussen survey emerged showing a surprising, but now possibly confirmed, 10% Obama lead. Edwards trailed badly in that one.

I hope you'll join us on Tuesday, as we watch the results. If you can't, please consider hosting your own watch party.

Below is an email I received from Mark Gilbert. He's from Utah, and helped put together the Senator's visit to Park City last August. Mark is a member of Obama's Finance Team. Since August, he often sends us updates, and I thought you might be interested in seeing this email.

Hi - and Happy New Year!

Thursday night we beat the odds. We beat the cynics. We disproved the pundits who said we couldn't run a different kind of campaign.

As Senator Obama said:

"Sometimes, just sometimes, there are nights like this. A night that years from now when we've made the changes we believe in, when more families can afford to see a doctor, when children, when Malia and Sasha and your children inherit a planet that's a little cleaner and safer, when the world sees America differently, and American sees itself as a nation more united and less divided, you'll be able to look back and say that this was the moment when it all began."

When we began, we were 20 points behind. But as a result of hard work, we closed that gap and we proved the American people are ready for hope, ready for change.

If there was ever any doubt about the senator's experience or ability to put together a world class organization, our ground effort in Iowa, our historic fundraising success, and our development of a national field team put that to rest.

While Thursday night was wondrous, while we made history; it was the beginning, not the end of our journey. We have put together the best organizations in the primary states through February 5:

* New Hampshire: January 8th -- The largest field operation in the state has made nearly 1.6 million phone calls and knocked on 330,000 doors. Our campaign has been endorsed by both Democratic US Representatives, Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter, and the latest Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll puts us in the lead.
* Nevada: January 19th -- We have the biggest organization with 11 field offices and more than 50 staff; we're gaining strength every day.
* South Carolina: January 26th -- Former Democratic chairman Donald Fowler praised our 55 staff members in 11 offices for running "the most methodical voter-canvassing project I have ever seen in South Carolina."
* The 22 February 5 states -- We have 32 offices open in 17 states, including states like Alaska, Alabama, and Utah where we're the only campaign up and running.

But even though we have the best organizations in those states, we need your help to meet our financial challenges. But we need your help now. Please consider making a contribution to the campaign now. You can contribute online at: (please excuse the wording on the form - we have not had time to update it since Iowa), or you can call me at 561-350-5030.

Senator Obama and Michelle are in New Hampshire where polls show us slightly ahead. But, like they did in Iowa, Washington insiders are pouring huge amounts of unregulated money into the state. In Iowa, they spent millions on baseless negative attacks against the senator. We cannot let these tactics go unanswered. We need your help in New Hampshire and beyond.

We are close - but an enormous task lies before us. As Senator Obama said Thursday night:

Years from now, you'll look back and you'll say that this was the moment, this was the place where America remembered what it means to hope. For many months we've been teased, even derided, for talking about hope. But we always knew hope is not blind optimism. It's not ignoring the enormity of the task ahead or the roadblocks that stand in our path. It's not sitting on the sidelines or shirking from a fight. Hope is that thing inside us that insists, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that something better awaits us if we have the courage to reach for it, and to work for it, and to fight for it.

We have that courage. The American people have the courage.

We need your support and your friendship now more than ever.

Thank you - thank you for your support - and please forward this to your friends and family.

Mark Gilbert


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